The US gov't did believe a Japanese attack was likely. No question. There were 2 important questions whose answers were unknown, though: Where? And When?
The Phillipines had long been and continued to be considered the likeliest targets. In fact, the war plans that had been drawn up for war with the Japanese did assume the Phillipines would be the first target and were concerned with protecting them. (In spite of that, that great American war hero, Douglas McArthur, was thoroughly unready when they were finally attacked- -the day AFTER Pearl Harbor).
Pearl Harbor was considered an impossible target - until the attack on the Italian fleet at Taranto by the British on Nov. 12, 1940. Even then, many top US brass considered it impossible that the Japanese could duplicate the technology needed for shallow-water torpedoes. Even given that they could, though, the majority still considered an attack on the Phillipines more likely.
It seems you have the facts about that. Someone's "facts".
Yeah, I produce facts. You produce speculations.
But what is true is that the FBI had custody of a German spy who told them that he had on orders taken pictures of pearl that he knew were for the japanese.
The FBI also knew that Japanese Embassy staff were taking pictures of Pearl Harbor. And other places. So where was the attack coming? And when?
There's another even more telling fact here, though- -an apparently missing one. US Naval Intelligence had broken into the Japanese diplomatic code. They intercepted and decoded a message to the Japanese Embassy in Washington telling them that a long message would follow in 12 parts. They were to decode it- -and them destroy their code books and machines. That's an ominous sign. But it still didn't tell where the attack was coming. As a precaution, the Navy Dept. sent a "war warning" to the Phillipines and Hawaii. Bad choice of words- -that's non-standard terminology. It doesn't tell the field commanders what to do or what to expect. In Hawaii, fearing sabotage, the Army Air Force bunched its planes to make them easier to guard- -exactly the wrong strategy for aerial attack.
The missing piece was "East Wind Rain". Those words were to be included in a weather forecast by Radio Tokyo on the eve of weather. This was known from previous intercepts. It has never been proven that in fact those words were broadcast.
However, on 12/6/1941, one of the messages to the Japanese embassy in Washington instructed them to break all ties to the US at 1 PM Eastern time- -7 AM Hawaii time. That's when the attack on Hawaii began. The trick is that it was not known that Hawaii was the target.
Timeline:
decades.com
You can speculate all you want. I'm sure Ray Duray will be happy to join you in promoting a conspiracy theory- -if you wish to totally destroy your credibility.
Maybe FDR did know the Japanese would attack Pearl. I don't see how, but maybe so. I don't see that you can prove that, though. And a charge like that requires proof.
I'm sure you must appreciate how unlikely it is I would end up being a defender of FDR. Did he expect a Japanese attack? He probably considered it a distinct possibility. Did he know when and where? No. |
