Thanks, Mike.
I agree that the Communications revenue seems aggressive. I had it toned down, but then their statement that Communications revenue alone would cover profitability in 2001 didn't prove out. I would have had to raise GMs faster to reach that with lower projected growth - and, until I see firmer reasons to do this, (coupled with the more conservative 10Q wording), I decided to be more conservative on the GMs and aggressive on the Communications growth.
The spreadsheet is just a tool to visualize a moderate success. I say moderate, because the current sensor and other future sensor products could change all this.
Think about this. The market there is $500 million a year. KVH's product is smaller, faster, cheaper, safer, digital, etc. AND is likely to be first to market here.
Look at this, just for the current sensor:
5% of market = $25 million per year or over $6 million per quarter, - overwhelming the military sales.
20% of market (why not? who else? how long to reach?) = $100 million a year in revenues - more than 4 times all of KVH's 1999 revenue, just for this one product and market.
These Yahoo! posts talk less about projecting ahead and more about understanding the Big picture.
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