Hi Barry; Ya the whole market looks like it's wanting to correct some,
and if it does it can take some of the small caps down too..and they
may be better buys in a week or so. I'm not to concerned about it
as I think I'l be offshore, and she will come back.
I just finnished doing all the Nasdaq short interest in lotus
it's interesting to see that from 1-95 were short interest was
.74 B shares..to 6-97 how it climbed to 1.6 B shares, this climb
in short interset ( over double ) fits right into the climb in the
market. July it fell to 1.55 B..which could give us a correction.
It's been a momentum market, with the brookers, Market Makers ,
and some Funds pushing up the market to sell to the shorts as
they cover. They zero in on the "buy stops" and when they see a
certain amount..they know just how much they have to buy to get
the price up to them, and then sell right back to that ready made
market, and in most cases they have some left over so they short
to the shorters. I'm convinced individual shorters do not realize
the odds they are up against. The pros have the inside data, and
are one step ahead all the way. I still see the AOL Jan 32.5 call
in place with 11000 IO..that is the one to watch for AOL..as I
belive it is a pro , and is used for cover to short. If it sells
off it will be a tip off. I may not be here to see it.
206.7.107.50
If a big put position opens at that time you will know for sure.
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A quick look at oct 70 options,
the call is 8-7/8 the put is 6-7/8 ..if you had the call and AOL
got to 78-7/8 you could short knowing at that point you are break
even..and not worry about getting bought in..but with the put she
has to go down to 63-1/8 for you to know your break even..
what do you think she will hit first 78-7/8 or 63-1/8 ? thats a big
trading range, and tells me the options are too damm high.
The bookies are cleaning up. When I started playing AOL options
were priced a lot lower ( both sides ) we got to many people in
the game, ( option traders, out number the the "WRITERS" ) so
the demand is up..and the price is up. There are much better
option prices on other stocks at this time, so no matter which
way AOL goes profit will be hard to come by, relitively speaking
I can see a lot of stocks that will likely move just as much,
and the options are about half priced of AOLs she has just got to popular.
Jim
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