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Technology Stocks : Phoenix Technologies (PTEC)
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To: Fred Fahmy who wrote (425)2/1/1997 10:35:00 AM
From: Tim Oliver   of 3624
 
Fred, congratulations on your stock picking intelligence. Interestingly,
my paperboy was also bullish on INTC...he said because it was going up.
I'm sure you had more sophisticated reasons.

Just for the fun of it, I looked at the 100 day charts of all the
other stocks listed in the "comparison group" for PTEC. Several
others seemed to be "dead money", including some that have
had even more impressive earnings numbers than PTEC recently
like Citrix (which already had a huge PE).

On the other hand, Zitel and Award stocks have had huge gains
and I notice that Zitel hasn't made much money at all. AWRD
is another stock like SYSF that has magnificent expectations built
in by analysts. Interestingly, SYSF has tumbled in the past few months
but is still a big "story" stock and has a PE much higher than history
would warrant. What's even more amazing is that investors and
analysts continue to buy SYSF even though the management has
failed on several occassions to live up to promises and projections.
They even put a "spin" on the details of a "key" contract that they lost
to PTEC and Cybermedia. This market seems to love hype now, even
if it's not supported.

My guess is that PTEC is simply victim to the lack of interest in
the whole sub-sector that they belong to right now. Who knows
when that'll change? Until that happens, PTEC many continue
to trade where it is unless the company beats analyst expectations
or increases earnings estimates (or both).

My paperboy says he'll jump into PTEC when it "looks like it's going
up". He sure knows his technology stocks! Thanks Fred for
sharing your wisdom with us here on why you think INTC is a
much better stock to own than PTEC.
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