John:
I usually do not recoomend something for sure, but in this case I have come to truly believe if one wants to triple or more his assets one should buy as many shares as SUNW as one can at this time. The stock may go down to as low as $40 (or even $39) - for whatever reason - but 6 to 8 months from now just like the past 6 months this stock will double or triple. Therefore it truly does not matter to buy the stock at $39 or $48, 6-8 months from now the difference will be meaningless.
What Microsoft has done is a classic Microsoftish thing to do which is to take a technology and then step on the guy whom they took the technology from. However this time around they are in for a huge surprise as they will come to reaalize they just nailed their own coffin! Microsoft is relying on developers to fall into their camp. But the fact is it is no longer developer's choice but rather the requirements that the market demands developer's perspecitve employers (namely Software vendors). Software vendors have to follow the broad consumer market which requires Java as defined by Sun.
Sun has a very strong case and it is true that they really did not want to take Microsoft to the court and Microsoft thought they would never do that! Microsoft has clearly broken their agreement with Sun of not following JDK 1.1 fully. They simply have been caught red handed, and can not possibly escape from the consequences. In the final analysis they will end up fully implement their agreement with Sun. This will only benefit Sun, and another slap on their face. Somehow the boys at Microsoft continue to think this is still the late 80's early 90's where they can step on everyone else and move up!
The stakes are very high. It is not a simple matter of Microsoft not following its agreement with Sun. It is simply a matter of future computing. I have used in the past an analogy of that of communism vs. capitalism, with communism being Microsoft, and capitalism being Sun. Eventually, Microsoft will be its own reason of fall, and this I am most confident of and I do realize many many people do not yet see it that way! However we can mark this page and come back to it a year from now and we can examine the situation at that time again.
For now, in my opinion, from an investment point of view, SUNW will generate much much higher returns (percentage wise) than that of MSFt. The shift in computing is going away from Microsoft's methodologies toward Sun, at a rate similar to the late 80's with communism losing to capitalism, and similar to that transformation things will not be as smooth as they could otherwise be!
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
