'Power Supply in NZ?
asked in the TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Q&A Forum
Here is some interesting hard information on the power
supply issue, from NZ, but it applies generally in the West. It
takes the form of a Q & A session, questions from myself
answers from: Brian Donnelly Year 2000 Programme
Manager Electricity Corporation of New Zealand (ECNZ)
P.O. Box 930, Wellington New Zealand
This is the best "official" response I've got so far on the issue
Friday, 24 July 1998 12:45 To: Y2K Program Office
Subject: Y2k and the Power Supply
Like many people in IT (business computing), I have worked
on application software for business systems I am therefore
quite aware of the associated y2k issues. What is a complete
mystery to me is the possible y2k problem of embedded
controls systems/chips on equipment used to
generate/distribute the power supply. As the prospect of
power cuts would have greater immediate visible
repercussions than the effect of business software failure or
malfunction, I would be pleased if you could provide clear
answers to a few questions. Do you really think there is any
risk of embedded control systems failing thereby causing the
associated machines to malfunction or stop as a result of an
internal date/time clock moving to 2000. [Brian Donnelly]
Yes, there is. So far we have found several problems
primarily in the control & monitoring systems, which if left
unchecked would leave the control network unable to
respond to system events or failures. Actual embedded
systems are not in themselves a large risk, in general (if
equipped with a clock) will simply roll over to /00, the risk is
in the control software recognising how to interpret this.
Are power control systems internationally (at least in the
non-ex-communist world) fairly similar in design, ie would
we expect the same sort of outcome in 2000 all over the
world, whatever that might be. Is the concern about the
power supply completely misplaced. [Brian Donnelly] To my
knowledge, power systems in UK / N America / Australia /
NZ / and parts of Asia, are all fairly similar (I think this
probably extends world-wide, but on that I cannot
comment) in nature and deployment. I don't think concern is
misplaced. I am aware of a number of industry problems
world wide which are similar in nature. Fortunately, the
industry is fairly well prepared for handling system failures as
electrical generation and distribution is a volitile business
subject to frequent "corrections".
I think that most people would find it hard to believe that
there would be a likelihood of y2k power cuts. If there were
a risk it is also likely that any bad news would be suppressed
to prevent panic. [Brian Donnelly] I think there are a number
of "watchdog" agencies out there depending on the country
in question, so I don't think the problems (or potential)
would be covered up. When I'm asked if the lights will go
out, my typical reply is "that they may not go out... but I'd
expect them to flicker". The reason why I think there will be
problems is because: (a) I don't think it is possible to identify
all embedded components (we operate 29 power stations of
both thermal and hydro variety with ages ranging from 10 to
80 years old); (b) the supply chain though not long, is
complex (i.e. fuel supplier to generator to grid/grid operator
to distributor/retailer) with failures at any level creating
potential for wider spread of failure. Why I don't think the
problems will be catasprophic is because: (a) the diversity of
the generation capability (i.e. it is unlikely that a single
problem will affect all stations, Y2K included); (b) there is a
current state of over supply (i.e. generation capability
exceeding demand by in excess of 10 % and rising); (c)
control system across the supply chain are similar or in some
cases identical; (d) the level of Y2K awareness in the
industry; (e) the sharing of Y2K information across the
industry.
>
Asked by Richard Dale (rdale@figroup.co.uk) on July 27, 1998.
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