Hi Jay,
Jay, you’re quite an archivist, responding to an almost 3 years old post. I unbookmarked this thread a long time ago because there were more posts than I have time to read. I’m planning to retire this year (age 51), so maybe I’ll have more time soon.
Yah, I did OK in 2001(big up) and 2003(major up). 2002(slightly down) was so-so since I got caught in the PM correction.
My major strategy changes since then:
1) to move from gold producers to gold explorers. This was aided by careful lurking on the Precious and Base Metal Investing thread.
2) I also got into base metals like Ivanhoe (TSX:IVN), Canico (TSX:CNI), Amerigo(TSX:ARG) and many short-term trades too.
3) I sold all my U.S. stocks a year ago.
The big problem is: I can’t find any great small-caps. In the past, I not only could find good-looking muti-bagger prospects, but they would kinda jump out at me and wave. Stocks like Bowflex, (TSX:BFX, then TSX:DFX, then DFXI, now NLS), Home Capital Group (TSX:HGC.B), Stake Technology(STKL), Peyto (TSX:PEY.UN) and Silent Witness(SILW) were just sitting there saying: “buy me”, “buy me”. Now everything seems overpriced.
Incidentally, anyone who bought Bowflex at the bottom around 1996 and sold at the top in 2002 (renamed as Nautilus) earned 1,400 times on their investment, That’s 1,400 times (not percent). I only got a 30 bagger myself.
I’ve decided that 2004 is the year of the dice-roll. Since I have no idea where we’re going, I’m prepared to gamble. If I pay strict attention then I’m a jump ahead of the majority of investors who aren’t on top of the market. This is another good reason to retire, more time to play.
2004 Dice-Rolls:
1) Heritage Oil - TSE:HOC.A - Already moving up on anticipation of results from the Turaco-2 greenfield wildcat well in Uganda. sucess = huge up move, failure = you lose.
2) Tenke Mining - I’ve been following this since hostilities broke out in 1998 in Congo. It’s one of the Lundin family properties. They have a valuable copper property that, if exploited, would move this stock up. There should be some news in January or February. As insurance, they’ve invested over C$ 200M that could be written off if the whole thing implodes. If there’s a mine, look out above!
Other Ideas:
1) Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) - just think! - in a few years we’ll all have replaced our incandescent and flourescent light-bulbs with LEDs. Who is going to profit from this major sea-change? I don’t have a clue, but I’m looking for some leverage. I do have shares in Carmanah (TSXV: CMH, Frankfurt:QCX). Personally, I think this stock has been overbought short-term, but I haven’t sold any.
2) Buy energy stocks: oils, N.A. natgas, and drillers. Prepare to hold long-term. Why not buy a little Canadian Oil Sands (TSX COS.UN). It’s an insurance policy. I sold it, then had to buy it back for more money. So buy it, don’t sell it. Check this link for a list of Canadian and some U.S. Energy Trusts:
oilpatchupdates.com
Disclosure: I own all this stuff.
Cheers
P.S. I didn’t write this recipe for broiling Peking ducks: oilpatchupdates.com , but I know the guy who did. |
