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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)
AMD 221.06-1.1%Jan 5 3:59 PM EST
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To: Joe NYC who wrote (44252)6/13/2001 11:17:49 PM
From: Dan3Read Replies (2) of 275872
 
Re: there was one quarter (I don't have my spreadsheets here) when AMD sold about 6.3 million units, when Dresden production was barely measurable

Those were mostly 88mm2 K6-2s. Present Austin production is 100mm2 Durons and 120mm2 Thunderbirds. As a rough starting approximation (This is pure speculation) if it's 2/3 Durons and 1/3 Tbirds, and the "yield goes down by the square of the differences" rule holds, then 77% as many Durons are produced per wafer and 53% as many Tbirds.

So equivalent capacity is 2/3 * .77 and 1/3 * .53 or .69.

.69 * 6.3 million gives us a capacity at Austin of about 4.3 million chips per quarter.

I think there is a fair amount of production at Austin other than PC CPUs (embedded processors, at least) so that Dresden at build out will have modestly higher unit capacity than Austin (perhaps 50% more PC CPU capacity?).

AMD has also hinted that yields at Dresden are higher than yields at Austin and that they've improved their yields in general with new statistical controls.

With Dresden not much past 50% two quarters ago (when the first of the wafers being offered for sale this quarter were being started) AMD's capacity may be a fair amount less than 9 to 10 million parts for the current quarter.

I think they're selling pretty much everything they can make. I suppose they could be sitting on a half million Durons, or thereabouts, but that would be about it - and I kind of doubt that.

Regards,

Dan
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