January Effect 2003 Message Board

STOCKTALK

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Strategies & Market Trends : January Effect 2003

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To: Londo who wrote (442)	5/6/2003 4:14:59 AM
From: RockyBalboa	of 666

The USD Train Wreck. At the time of the EUR introduction, the currency traded at 1.18 USD. The low in contemporary history was in the 90s at about 1.36 German Marks per USD which equals an exchange rate of USD 1.45 per EUR. So, there is plenty of upside. The comments of Ben Bernanke certainly helped the EUR higher. The Dutch-french bod of the ECB is vowing against interventions citing them useless as to prevent the inevitable. The CHF is considered a new borrowing currency (vs. the EUR, not the USD), replacing the yen which could see some upside. The Swiss central bank follows a path of calculated devaluation by keeping the rates close to yen levels and selling the own currency thereby showing large book profits. The risk of a rate cut in the EUR zone is in fact lower than both the US and Swiss, per the money market curve. ------------- Ay I type, the EUR hit a new high of 1.1340 (1.1328).

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