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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 180.90+2.1%Oct 31 9:30 AM EDT
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From: Jim Mullens3/10/2005 12:10:59 AM
   of 196393
 
Brian Modoff is one of the few analysts that breaks out his handset forecasts by technology, an invaluable insight for those hoping to focus on the best investment opportunities in wireless (CDMA based, naturally)

Mr. Modoff’s new handset forecast (by technology in millions) – my bold.

“Our handset model will also reflect the potential Sprint-Nextel combination. We
have accelerated the decline in iDen sales, which we now expect to decline this
year and be rapidly phased out in 2006-2007.

We are currently forecasting slightly over 690 million handsets to be sold this year,
including 60 million WCDMA handsets. This figure is roughly in line with Nokia.s
recently upgraded estimate and could prove conservative if 2H05 volume shifts by
one operator in Europe are aggressively matched by its competitors and peers. Any
such shift would likely occur at the expense of 2G devices. It is interesting to note,
that should this occur we could conceivably see a year-on-year decline in GSM
handsets in Europe.”

.........................2004......2005....2006......2007.....2008.....2009

GSM..................443.0....462.3....440.1....387.0....330.6....255.6
CDMA Based
...WCDMA...........20.3......60.6....130.7....222.8....309.0.....398.1
...CDMA.............146.3....163.4....186.1....205.1....223.6.....243.2
...s/tot.................166.6....224.0....316.8....427.9....532.6.....641.3
....% of tot.............25.9.....31.6......41.4......52.3......61.7.......70.6
Other
Total...................643.0....708.2....765.0....818.4....863.4......907.9

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

In contrast- Deutsche Bank’s Europe forecast- (28 Feb 2005)

.........................2004......2005.....2006

GSM..................427.0....460.0.....444
CDMA Based
...WCDMA...........22.0......55.0....115.0
...CDMA.............128.0....134.0....130
...s/tot.................150.0....189.0....245.0
....% of tot.............23.7.....28.0......34.8
Other
Total...................632.0....674.0....705.0

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Qualcomm’s latest handset forecast (7 March 2005)

...........................2004......2005
CDMA Based
...WCDMA...........23.0......55.0
...CDMA.............143.0....168.0
...s/tot.................163.0....223.0

It should be noted that GSM subscribers continue to grow, and as Dr. J stated at a Qualcomm ASM several years ago, GSM will be with us for quite some time. However, as investors in the wireless industry, our focus should be on the segments of expanding / robust YOY handset sales growth and that is clearly relegated to CDMA based technologies and not the GSM world as the GSMA and others would have us believe.
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