Avid Stock Chat
April 13, 2005
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 9:29AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Stocks that have triggered sell signals from compelling areas of their current patterns are: IMNX, JNPR, JPM, LIZ, MWD.
Stocks that have triggered buy signals from compelling areas of their current patterns are: KLIC, SPLS, USG.
A low-priced long signal fired on SATH, while a low-volume long signal fired on RT.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 9:52AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
I think that Mark Haines ( on CNBC ) should subscribe to Avid, then he would know what was going on ;)
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 9:55AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
ra -- If he does, then we'll send you a referral ;)
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 9:56AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
insight: given today's Heads Up column, a short in the spiders ( SPY ) might be in order. Would a break through 146 ( to the downside ) be a good entry and I show a target of 138, then 134. I appreciate your service, has been very profitable.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 10:03AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
insight: MU, after closing under 115.25 yesterday, and having made several attempts to rally past it late in the day, opened up 4, probably on AMD news. Now you do have a wide stop, but does this opening up gap constitute alarm?
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 10:03AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
MARKET -- So much for potentially immediate draw of re-testing an overnight high. Prices barely hesitated before falling to meaningfully new relative lows, and are now bouncing. S&P;'s need a trending session -- essentially, all-day selling without relief -- before there can begin to be confidence that enough interested sellers had been flushed out of the market to allow a more sustainable recovery/rally, and this does not appear to be that session. NYSE internals are mixed to negative, while NASDAQ's have actually deteriorated into the recovery from earlier lows.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 10:10AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, SPY -- If the short's purpose is to serve as a hedge to existing long positions, then there really is no timing issue. But if the short is to serve as a trade or speculation, then the odds in favor of the trade should be stacked as much as possible by managing the entry at the lowest-risk price point available; if not into a break of support, that would be into strength back to resistance, and the Heads-Up Table's SPX calculations can be helpful there. But resistance created since then would include the 6-1/2 band between yesterday's close and this morning's high, and a reversal following an attempt to break above there would be relevant.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 10:13AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
anyone have link to the stocks in the S & Ps ? ( small cap, mid cap ) Thanks
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 10:21AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, MU -- A high volume reversal would be of concern, or a high volume inside day. But the opposite of either does not on its own invalidate the technical signals. So far today, the stock is hovering above its 116 area last relative high after closing yesterday under the morning lows on its fifth consecutive losing session. Expanding volume above 118-119 would be of concern, but not the action so far.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 10:43AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Good Morning everyone, just checking the chat to see whats happening, will be hanging on for dear life. Patience will prevail.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 10:47AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Insight, is it valid to look at support and resistance in mutual funds? I'm looking at a tech fund that I have TIFQX and it seems to be near support, but it's a pretty vague support. Your thoughts?
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 10:52AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Have a good day everyone,see ya'all tommorow.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 11:05AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, TIFQX -- It is certainly more difficult to calculate targeted support and resistance levels without intra-day highs and lows to identify more relevant price points. But there certainly was a high, consolidation, breakout and then re-test of the 50 area on the way up, and that area is now being tested as support. But the problem with charting a fund as a singular security is that the holdings are subject to change, so it is more like trying to chart the fund managers' performance. There are indicators that attempt to define and confirm trend direction, and in this case an initial sell signal would have fired on Mar 14 at 80.44, after a buy signal on Feb 3 at 59.06, with at least 9 dollars higher or several weeks of sideways movement to generate the next buy signal.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 11:15AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
MARKET -- The Dow has relatively underperformed the broader-based S&P;'s at each relevant turning point this morning. The S&P;'s recovery high pierced the opening peak before turning lower while the Dow did not, and the Dow is currently recovering from new lows while the S&P;'s did not even touch theirs. That should put off any downside fireworks for a couple of hours, if not create rally attempt in the early afternoon. Meanwhile, TICKs have remained in negative territory while 50% more down volume is only generating 30% more decliners. The internals are still negative, but putting in an effort to maintain that may also be a reflection of sellers waiting for a better opportunity in either time or price.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 11:38AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
insight: in the earlier post you say that the S & Ps haven't touched their lows, does that mean that they will, ie it is more likely that they will touch somewhere between s1 and s2?
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 11:42AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
insight: and if they do, more downside than up to be suspected?
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 11:43AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
-- less likely for the S&P;'s to break their lows, when the Dow breaks earlier lows and then recovers back above them, without the S&P;'s accompanying. The interim high serves as resistance to any further recovery attempt, but a buy signal is generated upon the interim high being broken.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 11:44AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
-- Dependent upon the character of an eventual break to new session lows by the S&P;'s, the odds would generally then favor that the consolidation had resolved with a new downleg.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 11:48AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
insight: thanks, it's good to be both short and long, this market.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 11:51AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
insight: thoughts on PAIR? Has really reversed
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 11:57AM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, PAIR -- yesterday's reversal was on larger volume than the previous session's decline, but the technicals were not sufficiently reversed to either generate a buy signal or invalidate the sell signal. So far, it appears only the timing and price have been affected, but not the direction of the higher-odds trade. A close above 19-1/2 would create targeted resistance at 22 in a potential capitulation pattern.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 12:54PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
If this is the good news on MCSI (off 3 9/16) about Zengine, I sure would hate to see bad news :)
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 1:27PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
MARKET -- The NDX broke the +150 potential gain mentioned before the open, but S&P;'s ran into their R-2 and each reversed. S&P;'s fell below their morning peak and held under there as the lunch hour ended, and the character of the consolidation suggests that a lower session low will be made. SPX back above 1475.75 would help to invalidate that potential.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 2:07PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
ra, are you still here? Everybody is quiet today with this nervous market. How is your managed value portfolio doing in this market? I'm hurting on MCSI today, don't know what's going on there. Supposedly good news out about Zengine (owned by MCSI) but the stock down 4 7/16 :(
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 2:41PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
test
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 3:14PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
MARKET -- The decline attacked the low, but did not touch it, and now underway is either an obligatory bounce, or a potential rally into the close. The pattern still calls for new lows, but SPX would still need to break back above 1475.75 before being able to invalidate that expectation.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 3:25PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
MARKET -- It's not the prettiest pattern, but an inverted Head & Shoulders may have formed beginning at about 2:40, and it would not be invalidated unless the SPX can sustain a reversal below 1461.25 before prices can rally too far above 1465. Otherwise, SPX 1476.25 would be targeted initially.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:25PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
inSight: what are your thoughts on the COMP, please.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:26PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
inSight - WAVO - Do you see this going much lower than 3 1/2
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 3:34PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, NASD -- re-test of last Tuesday's "V" bottom is historically-mandated. The hesitation just above there, with prices so close to doing so, suggests that the market is conserving its energy so that a convincing break can be made. NASDAQ up volume had been well ahead of down volume for most of the day, but the spread very recently went negative.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:35PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
A little ironic to see the market "dying" while SRV, one of the largest funeral home companies, is up 25% today...
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 3:36PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, WAVO -- 3-1/2 - 4 is targeted support, and that is coinciding with the prior lows. If that level were going to produce a bottom, then the simultaneous re-test and the satisfaction of selling pressure should have been expected to produce at least a bounce. Instead, volume is tapering off.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:38PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
sruehle: perhaps business is up due the market dying...
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:40PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
sr - The burial spots in cyberspace are to expensive, SRV will not die out!!
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:42PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
inSight- WAVO - Are you saying that the buying opportunity is when volume picks up? I am in accumulation phase for the med term not short term.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:42PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
dfeinman, perhaps so - there are certain to be a lot of "die-hard" bulls feeling a tightness in their chest of late.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:45PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
I bought SRV in the low 3's then pitched it when it failed to immediately go up. I've been spoiled by the market these past years, I'm having to relearn patience.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:45PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
me too, sr ....
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:47PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
I hear you too..sr
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:48PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Insight are you suggesting that Nasdaq will break to lower lows and dive??
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 3:51PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, WAVO -- Volume definitely needs to pick up. But it has contracted as prices have met levels that should have seen volume expand and prices bounce. The odds do not favor a recovery without lower prices first, though a high volume break above 4 would be very constructive.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 3:53PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
-- the market is suggesting that happening. Consider that all of the buying since last Tuesday's low has now seen the recovery fully reverse. That was not a modest bounce in the interim. The pattern initially targets NDX 3360-3380, currently 3580.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 3:55PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Hello to all. Hope all are not getting killed in this market like me. Insight, Is AGE still a good short cadidate after its spurt yesterday and upgrade of brokerages? I would appreciate your insight.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 3:59PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, AGE -- Closing under 38-1/8 support today, though volume is not expanding. Entry parameter is still met, but higher volume close under 37 tomorrow would be added confirmation. MWD was given as a short this morning, and it has performed accordingly.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 4:00PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
inSight - WAVO - thanks for the info. I will continue to accumulate positions below 3 1/2 for now and be keeping an eye on the volume for larger buys.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 4:02PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Well Nasdaq finished around last Tuesday's low and tomorrow should be the make or break day and I don't know how many can take it.I for one not having fun at all!!!
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 4:04PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, WAVO -- Would be careful with that strategy. 3-1/2 is like a finger in the dike, and when it goes, in this kind of market environment, there is no telling when the water stops flooding. The confirmation of a high volume close above 4, if looking for an intermediate-term type of move, is probably worth waiting for. Otherwise, some sort of technically confirmed breakout from an accumulation pattern at lower levels would be the second least risky approach.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 4:04PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
Thanks Insight. I read your post this morning but have been away from the computer all day. Have a good evening. Bye.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 4:07PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
JNPR -- anyone who took this short today should consider either hedging (for instance, buying call options) or closing the position. Still strong potential for lower Friday morning, but a lot will depend upon the session itself from there.
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 4:10PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
InSight your thoughts please on MCSI. It's hard for me to give my opinion because "I just don't know after today" :)
(member)... Thu, Apr 13, 4:15PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
inSight - WAVO - I will wait then. THX. I do not know if my finger can hold the water back! Better safe than sorry or worst getting drowned and washed away.
inSight_inFo... Thu, Apr 13, 4:19PM EDT (-0500 GMT)
, MCSI -- now initially targeting 23, needs to close above 26 on expanding volume to consider that the break may have been a bear trap. |
