My assumption is that 132 will get AA and that the ASCENT trial will confirm efficacy....wink-wink....so, in all likelihood, we will have a "blockbuster" on our hands. BB drugs typically sell for about six times revenues, perhaps more. The imponderables are:
Will 132's indication, if all goes as we hope/expect, stop at one billion in revenues? Not likely....but hard to evaluate where the endpoint is.
How long will it take to ramp revenues to $1 Billion for 132? 3 years would be great. 5 years is more likely. But it's hard to say how fast revenues will match the demand curve....and, at that point, the shape of the demand curve becomes all-important: straight line arithmetic or parabolic?
Beyond, TNBC, what other indications will IMMU be able to exploit....and how will they roll forward?
When you have one success, and other promising indications in development, the market tends to extrapolate expectations.
My bottom line regarding possible valuation: Silly, obscene, crazy, ridiculous, WOW. |
