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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: jeff nightbyrd who wrote (4610)8/27/1997 1:45:00 PM
From: Brent D. Beal   of 13594
 
Ya "cheap at these prices" and getting cheaper all the time. I just, flat-out, cannot believe anybody in their right mind could think AOL is cheap at these prices. But then I remember all sorts of long-winded explanation of why IBM was a good deal at $160, right before I sank to around $60. Same story with Cascade at $80+ etc. Hell, right now I can apply the same logic being used to value AOL and argue that IOM is worth at least $150. I'm long on the stock, so it's good to hear that it's undervalued. I'll summarize the typical AOL logic:

1) 8+ million subscribers sure is a lot of people (this is usually accompanied by a few comments about other services only have 2.5+ million or less, etc.)

2) with that many people, they must be able to make money doing something (insert various arguments________________)

3) followed by various reason why AOL hasn't yet managed to make any money since it went public (insert various excuses______________)

4) followed by assertions that things will be different at some vague future data (date various depending on situation)

5) conclusion: AOL is worth a gazillion $$$$ a share now because it might make money some day, etc.

Give me a break!

Since ya'll seem to think AOL is such a great deal, why don't you go short IOM, it's trading at the precarious level of about $24 a share,and given your unique way of evaluating stock, I bet IOM is a screaming short. This way you can protect yourself on the downside in the event the market takes a nosedive. Let's see, long AOL at 65, short IOM at 24. Let me know how ya'll make out.

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