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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Brent D. Beal who wrote (4621)8/29/1997 10:42:00 AM
From: steve lipson   of 13594
 
Andy, Brent, Yikes

What are you guys smoking? And can I get some. <g>

How on earth can you get an indication of a coming freefall from AOL's trading pattern this year. Of course the stock has traded down for a few weeks. If you hadn't noticed it had just completed an eight-month run from the 30s into the 70s and a new all-time high. Just because it doesn't go up every day is hardly a sign of weakness. News flash -- Intel, GE, Coke have all had down days from time to time.

In addition, this recent flat-to-down trading has come against a backdrop of an overall market pullback, so how you discern a fatal weakness in AOL from that is beyond me.

Since you seem to putting so much weight on these daily zigs and zags of the stock, does that mean if it manages to rise two days in a row you'll change your opinion and become bulls?

Finally, don't even think about trying to tell me that AOL's rise this year is a dangerous parabolic move or clear evidence of a mania. The stock's move has been accompanied by the requisite kinds of fundamental news you want to see, such as continued subscriber growth and major marketing deals. The general Internet mania is also clearly past, with Netscape at only about half its former high and plenty of other online/Internet plays trading below their highs (or even IPO prices -- like CSRV). Clearly, investors have set up some sterner tests for evaluating these stocks and AOL can withstand that scrutiny.
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