Just a couple of points.
What got Ampex, Bramson and we all into a lot of trouble was simply the Market, Net bubble sector
effect and real business sector downturn. The later was made worse by the traditional cyclic curtailment of
advertising budgets. This the very business which Bramson was building his expectations on.
These factors, however, do not exonerate Bramson for making poor choices and for failing to
execute - that is his role to perform regardless of the business climate.
What we are left with is a .30 cent stock. It's not oversold. That's all it's really worth. However, unwind
the factors and given a return of the Market, the real economy and finally the Net sector (especially
streaming and advertising and even high end storage (SANS and the like)), then Ampex, Bramson
and we all will get bailed out - to a degree.
Is there no hope at all? Not so. Otherwise we would not hold at .30 or whatever (as an aside many
small scale streamers are selling for pennies at the moment. Again a symptom and not an
explanation).
Actually, from the perspective of .30, AXC is an excellent penny trader stock. It's reasonably liquid, has
a potentially strong story and is given to price spikes. Furthermore, it has attractiveness to deep value
tech investors. Our current roster of funds invested is a testimony to that.
What Ampex is no longer, IMO, is any kind of growth investment vehicle. It's primary business, ADS
devices is rapidly waning. Poor sales executions certainly finished that. Its intellectual property
technology portfolio will have possibly substantial value. Finally, it's forey into Net streaming, while
a good choice, given the circumstances back when the choice was made, has been flawed by
essentially amateurish execution in capital management and debt / equity handling.
To balance this criticism, many of the Net startup ventures, which have long since failed or are
currently doing so, were led by essentially children in need of "adult supervision" (I'm
paraphrasing here - not my invention).
So, to conclude, as long as one accepts .30 as a current full valuation of AXC share price, then
thinking as a penny stock speculator, a spike into the 1.50 range, a five bagger, is a strong
possibility, whatever the mix of asset outcomes prevails. Given that this can happen within the next
six months, not a bad return from present levels.
Ed Perry |
