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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: j g cordes who wrote (461)8/8/1999 12:50:00 AM
From: J.T.   of 19219
 
Jim, If A.G. does not raise it 1/4 on the 24th bond yields will continue to move higher. All the way to 6.75%, imho. Al would be perceived as having no credibility in the bond pits. Based on the parameters Al set in the last FOMC meeting and Humphrey Hawkins testimony, Greenspan has no choice, but to raise rates. Except for one caveat---- If the market crashes or there is financial turmoil that rears its ugly head in the next two weeks. A distinct possibility. For more of A. G> analysis read this:

quote.bloomberg.com

Also, the economy is humming along much stronger than it was in the summer/fall of 98 before the LTC and market meltdown-- where A.G. had no choice but to inject liquidity in to the financial system and lower rates 3/4 points. Prior to that meltdown, if you recall, when things were fine in July 98 and the market was at 8,300, A.G. was getting ready to raise rates to cool the overheating economy. And we are growing stronger today vs. back then???

I guess in that analysis we have not 1 more but 3 more 1/4 point rate hikes or an additional 3/4 over and above the 1/4 he already raised.

I believe he will raise one last time 1/4 and be done with it. I like you believe inflation is not a factor, but greater problems materialize if he does nothing. BONDS ARE A SCREAMING BUY IN HERE.

Best, J.T.

Best, J.T.
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