Bloomberg writer Eric Martin just reported, “For the first time since the Bloomberg Professional Global Confidence Survey began in 2007, investors are forecasting that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will climb.”
In what I consider (only partly tongue-in-cheek) a contrarian validation of the post on our Instablog today (Looking to Buy “BRIC”s? The “ABC”s Are Better (Part I)) he adds, “They estimate that Brazil’s Bovespa and Mexico’s Bolsa will advance during the next six months” as well.
Bloomberg notes that confidence of worldwide investment professionals managing mutual funds, hedge funds, investment advisories, etc. had plunged in March to the lowest level since the bear market began in July 2008. (Right when they should have been buying, not cowering…) But the pros feel good about buying now, after the MSCI gauge of 23 developed nations has climbed 37%. I guess Happy Days Are Here Again!
Bloomberg further notes, “Sentiment climbed as Wells Fargo (WFC) of San Francisco reported record first-quarter profit on April 22 and put aside enough money to cover at least a year of loan losses. Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford (F) two days later posted a narrower loss than analysts estimated as it cut cash use almost in half.”
This is great news… If you want to believe the pronouncements from WFC, F, and the rest of the usual suspects who used one-time shady payouts from taxpayers-to-the IRS-to Treasury-to AIG-to-bankers as evidence that earnings have actually improved.
The article concludes, “Investors were most optimistic in Brazil, where the confidence gauge climbed 11 percent to 62.6, the highest level since June…while investors in Japan turned bearish.”
There are some investment professionals, financial analysts, and financial journalists who regularly out-perform the markets. But given the long history of investment professionals “in the aggregate,” it may be time to short Brazil and buy Japan…
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