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Here are some numbers: Dataquest estimates drive shipments will hit approx. 114 million units by years end. For the first quarter of 1996, there were 17 million units shipped by just the 3 remaining publicly held companies, Western Digital (3,900,000), Quantum (6,000,000), and Seagate (7,200,000). That's a lot of hard-drives. Suppose Ampex captures just 60% of Western Digital's market next year, using the latest quarterly figure (about 4 million units) - that works out to $.05/share quarterly, for every dollar Ampex nets (after costs) per keepered disk. I'd think that for increasing the capacity of a hard-drive by 20%, they would be able to charge a bit more than that. But we're talking just Western Digital. Just for fun, what if they signed agreements with all 3 of the previously mentioned companies, captured 40% of that total market, used this year's shipment info, and assumed Ampex nets a mere $2.00 per keepered disk? ((17,000,000 X .40 X $2/disk)/46,000,000 shares)=$.30/share for the year. If my math or my approach is wrong, don't hesitate to comment. But I believe the above shipment info to be highly accurate. |
