Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Pump's daily trading recs, emphasis on short selling

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To: Michail Shadkin who started this subject	5/12/2001 6:17:40 PM
From: Michail Shadkin	of 6873

Lets talk FOMC - giant ATM machine Currently expectation are 50/50% for a 50 point cut and 100% for at least 25% Here is the giant trend: Usually a 2-4 day rally prior to decision. (lately only day before and day of until 2:15pm) Every time the market immediately sells off after the decision for 2-3 days. Buy the rumor and sell the news. This has been happening for a very long time. It is a trend that has made me a lot of money. If something is working great, never stop using it until it stops working - a great rule that I always follow. Whether the fed eases 25 or 50 doesnt matter. they are close to running out of bullets. What could drive the market higher immediately after the decision? - not much!!!!!!!!! No more earnings for a while, in fact warning season just around the corner. (put your set belts on) The fed is probably done lowering rates, maybe 1 more of 25 points. No giant economic # in the next 10 days or so. If fed only lowers 25 points - immediate bloodbath If fed lowers 50 points - initial pop for 20 minutes, then the dump starts If fed goes to neutral stand - immediate bloodbath Dont forget, inflation could be just around the corner and 6 months from now fed might have to start raising rates to fight it. That would be very scary. Imagine recession and inflation at the same time - nothing is worse for the market. PPI and CPI have both shown increases and the payroll numbers have been inflationary. Greenspan is not oblivious to this. On tuesday early afternoon I will be selling all my trading longs and between 1pm and 2pm taking significant short positions into the decision. The size of the positions will be dependant on the size of the rally between now and tuesday 1:30pm. I will also provide a list of stocks to watch and possibly short into the meeting. (hopefully today or tomorrow) Tuesday afternoon will be a very busy indeed. Good Luck Michail

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