Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 292.92

-1.0%

10:49 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (48159)	6/19/2001 6:12:42 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Yep. I caught it most of the way through the first reading, but I was a bit shocked until then. ST doesn't usually engage in ad-hominem like that. Nice touch, ST ... <g> For the record: About a year ago, I disagreed with Cary on which way AMAT was headed. I was wrong; he wasn't. My arguments were speculative and wishful; his weren't. Since then, I pay more attention to him, though I still may not agree. Speaking of wishful thinking - I think we're seeing expectations of a V-shaped semi recovery turning pessimistic. That, too, is likely to be overdone near-term. I think Cary's reasoning is solid on direction; but I gotta keep my token disagreement in magnitude - I think we're done with the 30's and will stay in the 40's. On the subject of being fully committed to one direction - the reason it's a bad idea is uncertainty. I can push with one hand and pull with the other to turn a wheel; likewise, a short-term pessimistic (short or put) approach can work in combination with a long-term long strategy. There's not really inconsistency - they are two different piles of money managed differently by the same person. I can tell you I think we're headed down before up. You may focus on the down part - but ignore my fundamental confidence in an eventual recovery. Michael, I don't think you're as fully confident of a fast recovery as you would wish. Likewise, I don't think Cary is preaching exclusively doom and gloom (as you cast him). He's entitled to his opinion - and I welcome it - just as I do yours (and mine! <g>). - Mitch

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