Revenue(important) & Net income (not important at this stage) for COVD, TUTS, AWRE
COVD
For the nine months ended 9/98, revenues totalled $2.6 million, up from $0. (push this out to a yearly revenue of $3.5 million)
Net loss totalled $28.3 million, up from $1.1 million.
TUTS
For the fiscal year ended 12/31/98, revenues rose 70% to $10.6 million.
Net loss rose 50% to $13.7 million.
AWRE
For the nine months ended 9/98, revenues rose 77% to $7.8 million.
(push this out to a yearly revenue of $10.4)
Net loss rose 5% to $2.8 million.
Summary:
All these companies are TINY (under $15M revenue... )
To be honest in most industries with that sort of revenue stream they would be lucky to be $10 stocks... but hey its the internet. ;)
Revenue for 1998 shows AWRE & TUTS in a dead heat with COVD way behind. (this is important along with revenue growth)
Net Income for 1998 shows AWRE #1, TUTS #2, COVD #3
This is less important because at this stage of the game you want to be investing in your R&D... however, you dont want losses to get to a point where they overwhelm you either (COVD!)
Now interesting enough COVD has the biggest mkt cap.. so either I am missing something here, or its way overvalued in comparison to the other two. Advantages of TUTS and COVD are they are IPOs which cannot be shorted yet.
Now let me explain a dirty little secret (trick) of Wall Street which I have learned simply from observing....
On recent IPOs... look for the major underwriters... note their names... and then expect strong recommendations by those brokerage houses within 2-4 weeks of the IPO. Let me share with you some info on COVD.
The offering is being managed by Bear, Stearns & Co. Inc., BT Alex. Brown Incorporated, Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corporation and Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Now lets look at the quick history (LOL) this is SO OBVIOUS
1/22 - COVD IPO
1/22 - Coverage initiated by Bear Stearns (lead underwriter) SUPRISE SUPRISE! (and I will let you all guess that the coverage wasn't a "sell" or "market perform" rating) LOL
1/27 - Coverage initiated by Goldman Sachs (wow no way!)
and just this week
2/03 - Coverage initiated by BT Alex Brown (gasp! wow!)
So that leaves DLJ .... and 3 major houses pushing COVD already with their recommendations. (so now you see how stock investing in many ways, is a damn game) "you line my pockets by giving us underwriter privelages, and we will in turn support your stock" (just like any business world experience)
Anyways getting back to comparisons
TUTS is next in line for the COVD experience
Let's see who the underwriters are...
The initial public offering is being managed by Lehman Brothers, Dain Rauscher Wessels, a division of Dain Rauscher
Incorporated, and Salomon Smith Barney.
Ok so lets see if within the next 2-3 weeks we see buy coverage initiated by both Lehman and Salomon Smith Barney.
Now I can also see why COVD has risen so fast, the quality of its underwriters is a notch above TUTS. But no matter, COVD has nearly a 8M float and TUTS 2.5
TUTS also seems to beat COVD in the revenue, net income arenas. So, people in summary, TUTS looks like a great play here with the expected fallback the past few days after the huge IPO date.. its market cap is the lowest of the 3 ($660M vs COVD's $2.4B), and a few "upgrades" on the way ;)
So good call stephen on this one, hope your still in it!
And Im exhausted and will now go rest ;)
DD is your friend,
Mark
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