President Bush and Republican leaders in Congress will win, at least in the short run. They will be able to claim that they delivered for seniors when Democrats could not. Voters probably won't remember that Democrats pushed similar bills for years; last year, they were thwarted by Republican opponents in the Senate.
•AARP, the nation's biggest seniors' organization with 35 million members, will be a winner. It endorsed the Republican plan and can claim plenty of credit when it passes. But 15 years ago, the lobbying giant also claimed credit for an expansion of Medicare that backfired. Seniors angered over higher premiums revolted, forcing the benefit for catastrophic medical expenses to be repealed in 1989. It's unclear how this legislation will work out for AARP director Bill Novelli, who threw the group's crucial weight behind the bill.
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Democrats in Congress will be losers, at least for now. Most have long sought the added drug benefit. But while some support the final compromise, most oppose it: They don't like its reliance on private insurers and health plans. They oppose Republicans' goal of making Medicare compete on prices and benefits with private insurers; the bill calls for a test program in six regions of the country, starting in 2010. While limited in scope, Democrats fear it could lead to privatizing Medicare. And they argue the benefit is too limited, covering at most 25% of seniors' expected drug costs over the next decade. "It's a nightmare for senior citizens," said Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass. |