Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 284.31

+5.8%

Jan 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Shoibal Datta who wrote (50359)	8/14/2001 1:08:18 PM
From: mitch-c	Read Replies (1) of 70976

ST-Trading Going back a bit to a prior question, I'm beginning to form an opinion/gut feel. 1) Max-pain is at 45 (+/- 2.5) right now. AMAT is within pennies of the center of that range. 2) Recent news and unquantified "performance" says everyone expects the news to be bad this afternoon. If it's bad, we may see a dip to the low 40's, returning to the mid-40's by Friday. If the news is "not as bad" as expected, we'll see a fast bump up and a slow slide back. 3) Unless either of those extend beyond 42 or 48, I don't see much ST options opportunity here. I'm situated accordingly - just riding out the storm with my LT long position. 4) I have no idea how a confirmation of the layoff rumor would affect AMAT. Good (costcutting), or bad (longer downcycle)? Dispelling it, however, would look all good - confidence in a cycle-turn soon. - Mitch

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