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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Snowshoe who wrote (50734)6/4/2004 9:39:06 PM
From: Seeker of Truth   of 74559
 
Hi Snow Shoe,
There are 36 years until 2040. In the meantime, suppose the Chinese GNP increases at a real rate of 7% a year during that period. That would mean the real GNP per person would have been multiplied by nine by 2040. This assumes the population remains the same. It may actually decrease, in which case the GNP per person would be more than nine times what it is now. I think one can assume that China would not be poor then, without any outward migration at all. Can they do it? On the yes side is the diligence, respect for learning, saving for the future characteristic of the Chinese people. On the no side is the state religion which can lead to mass extermination of insectivorous birds and much worse. On balance I'm optimistic. I think those lugubrious predictions for China are simply wrong.
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