Unlike you, I do not have faith in AOL. I think that they have a tremendous amount of competition now and will have even more in the near future. The RBOCs (regional Bell operating companies) are beginning to offer internet access. I am currently using internet service provided by PACBELL for a flat $19.95 a month for unlimited usage. The rate goes down to $14.95 for limited usage. AT&T also provides unlimited access for $19.95 a month. You get a free homepage from AT&T too. The cable companies are beginning to offer internet access through cable modems which boast more bandwidth. I haven't even begun to mention all the local ISPs that provide unlimited internet access for a low flat fee.
You say that AOL provides content that cannot be found on the internet. Have you surfed the Web lately? Isn't Silicon Investor on the Web and not AOL? In fact, the Motely Fool is on the Web for free at fool.web.aol.com. Try it out and see if it is any different from what you get on AOL. I can read the Wall Street Journal(http://www.wsj.com), New York Times (http://www.nyt.com, Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com), and Los Angeles Times (http://www.latimes.com) all for free on the Web right now. I have access to newswires for free right now. I have access to local newspapers and foreign newspapers for free right now. I can read magazines online on the Web for free. Check out pathfinder.com or sprynet.com. briefing.com provides a good stock and bond market overview for investors updated at least every hour. There are hundreds of good sites on the Web. All you have to do is look. And they are all free. If you can't find them, go to cnet.com or yahoo.com for a start. There are free, uncensored chatrooms on the Web too. If you cannot find something on the Web, you are not looking hard enough.
What is AOL going to do if ISDN becomes popular? ISND requires special wiring provided by the RBOCs. What if ADSL becomes the standard? How is AOL going to compete with that? How is AOL going to compete with other companies in going after business customers? Businesses care about reliability (i.e., no crashes), pricing, and higher bandwidth enabling them to do more things (e.g., video conferencing, etc.). They do not care about newspapers, magazines, and chatrooms.
One final thought. Do not fall in love with a company, even a good company, when investing. You will only get hurt that way. Just ask people who invested in Apple, Iomega, Presstek, U.S. Robotics, and all the other high-flying tech stocks that crashed.
Yes, I am short on AOL.
JW |
