re: fab capacity utilization vs. semi-equip orders:
According to SIA semichips.org fab capacity utilization, for the 2Q01, was 73%. According to a chart I have (sorry, no link, it's in a Merril Lynch "Weekly Guide for Tech Investors" report dated 8/17/01), this is the lowest capacity utilization in 10 years. Interestingly, troughs in semi-equip orders followed the troughs in capacity utilization, in the 1996 and 1998 troughs, by 3-4 months. That is, the two variables were linked, but capacity utilization troughs (and peaks, too) happened sooner.
Now, in this downturn, we have seen semi-equip orders go (slightly) up, for 3 consecutive months now. That's a strong indication that orders have troughed, and the near future expectation should be more increased orders (and increased stock prices, which track orders with no lag time).
But........(you knew there had to be a "but", from me)...... with so many chip companies reporting losses or break-even results, and with more under-utilized fabs now (on a % and absolute basis) than at the troughs in the last 2 downturns, why would chip companies be increasing orders for semi-equip?
Note to self: at the next semi cycle peak (2003?), when fab capacity utilization is down for 2 consecutive quarters, sell all semi-equips, no matter what is happening with bookings. |
