From the KLIC thread:
Foundries, Wafer Demand To Recover In 2002
By Tom Murphy, Electronic News -- Electronic News, 9/5/01
The semiconductor foundry industry could make a remarkable recovery in 2002 after suffering one of the worst years the fledgling industry has ever witnessed, according to Joanne Itow, an analyst with Semico Research.
The Phoenix, Ariz.-based market research company conducted its annual forecast workshop in San Jose today, and Itow predicted total wafer demand will recover from a 16 percent decline in 2001 to 19 percent growth in 2002 and 15 percent growth in 2003 and 2004.
For the foundry industry, the increase in wafer demand translates into 37 percent growth for finished products in 2002, Itow said, a year after utilization rates dropped to the low 40 percent range, or even to the high 20 percent range, in the case of Singapore’s Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd.
"2001 was the first year that the foundries suffered from a down turn," Itow said. "Usually they have bucked the trend. But the downturn, which affected communications chips from fabless companies, resulted in a 25 percent cut in demand.
"But the growth in 2002 will more than make up for last year," she said.
The foundry industry should reap the benefits of a 23 percent compound annual growth rate from 2001 to 2005, when Semico predicts the next downturn will occur.
But as the foundries grow bigger, both in capacity and by the number of players in the business, the industry is apt to become more prone to the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, Itow said. Large players with more than one fab will have a difficult time managing their capital investments to coincide with the cycles. Foundries with only one fab are more prone to the industry cycles and to the demand of individual customers.
"With fewer fabs being built in the future, it will put more pressure on the foundries," Itow said. "This roller coaster ride is not going to get any smoother." |
