SM,
re: Niles been bearish for a very long time while others have been bullish pundits telling everyone to go long. Niles has been on CNBC many times saying the turnaround is not yet. What is J.Joseph comments lately. I would be very interested in knowing.
Back in July '00, near the SOX top, Niles was coming on CNBC every two weeks saying if you don't do anything else, buy INTC (at $80+) an MU, his number one picks. ALL the analysts were bullish, you were seeing 50% YOY sales increases in PC's and semi's sales, there was talk of component shortages for the Christmas season. Into that, John Joseph said sell the semi's, it's a peak. He was right, but I think it took most of the other guys, including Niles, 6 months to get it. Niles is pretty good at the numbers, but as a market timer his record is terrible.
Joseph went positive on a lot of semi's about 10-11 months ago (working from memory, don't hold me to that). Since then, semi's have been flat. But the guy saved you from the move from 1200+ to under 600 (SOX points) if you listened and got out when he told you to. Niles let you take the hit, then he went negative. Since he went negative, the SOX is ~ flat.
John |
