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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 242.14+3.9%12:28 PM EST
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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (5213)6/8/1998 11:53:00 PM
From: Mark Fowler  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
PS: "BARS" stands for BancAmerica Robertson Stephens.
PPS: If you take out another $20 million for interest expense in 2001, still
probably understating reality, BARS' estimate of 88 cents for that year
becomes 55 cents resulting in a three year forward "PE" of 84. Considering that
there sure isn't room for further margin improvement beyond their very
generous assumptions for 2001 and sales growth that year is projected at only
20%, I'd say an 84 PE would be a tad rich even three years from now. Hell,
give 'em a 40 PE three years out and they might be worth $22 THEN. Discount
that back to today at just a market return of, say, 11% and you get less than
$16 today (but is an 11% return enough for the risk?). <<

It's rich, i'm not going to argue that with you. However, the current trend is up. When i see that change i'll be out. In this market fundamentals have taken a back seat, but right now i'm going with the trend. And who really knows how much growth is out there yet. Last report i read the internet crowd is doubling every three to four months. So let it ride and i ride along with it; it may grow into a very large profit. And as long as the action of the market does not give me any cause to worry too much, i have the courage of my convictions, so i'll stay with it. Regards
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