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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (50651)11/25/2013 12:40:11 PM
From: Paul Senior1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Jurgis Bekepuris

   of 78910
 
Mrs. Bekepuris: Okay, I'll listen to her opinion on the company: I've started to close my small KSS position.

Although my wife has the same opinion about Kohl's vs. Macy, my in-laws do shop at Kohl's. That may be a function of location -- there may not be much of anything else available in the area in which they live. Where we live, we much prefer our local Macy's, others.

I grant I am making a sell based anecdotally. I realize KSS might still be undervalued and the stock might do well going forward. (Otoh, the stock isn't at a great low p/e and company's d/e ratio has increased sharply.) It's just that sometimes with retail I'm willing to bet more with savvy shoppers and their impressions, rather than go with the financial facts I might be seeing.

For anybody who might be interested, here's part of a write-up from this week's Barron's which gives a positive view of the company's stock prospects:

"Finally, Dillard's (DDS) and Kohl's (KSS) could offer rewards after taking a beating for earnings disappointments. "You gotta love them when no one else loves them," says Robert Olstein, chairman and chief investment officer of the Olstein Funds and a well-regarded value investor.

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Olstein looks for companies with sustainably high free-cash-flow yields. Dillard's and Kohl's are around 10%, and Coach's is near 8% and growing. Coach, noted for stylish handbags and other accessories, trades for $54, but could be worth $71, he says, if revenue continues to rise by 3% a year, and free cash flow, by 5% to 7%. Kohl's, trading at $55, has upside to $70, in Olstein's view, while Dillard's, at $92, could rally to $120.

Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, also likes Kohl's, in part because it has hired several new midlevel managers, including a new head of marketing, who could help rebrand the chain.

"The worst of its troubles are over," says Johnson of the Menomonee Falls, Wis.-based retailer. "We see people coming back into the stores."

Barron's was positive on Kohl's in an Oct. 28 story, "Coming Back to Kohl's." Shares are flat, even though the company recently reported an 18% decline in its fiscal third-quarter profit."

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