AMAT TA:
On a 10-year log chart, it looks like you can put a ruler along the 1992, 1996, and 1998 bottoms, and we have now returned to that line. That is, we are at the bottom of the very-LT rising channel. siliconinvestor.com
On a shorter-term chart siliconinvestor.com we have now returned to the area of the mid-1998 peak, which is also the early-1999 horizonatal range (that almost all the techs have returned to). Techs that break below that early-1999 area tend to go on to the October 1998 lows. For AMAT, that would be 11. I don't think we're going there, however, as AMAT isn't going to do the massive writeoffs, downsizing, etc., that companies like NT and CSCO have done. But it's worth keeping in mind, as an outside possibility.
We've taken out the 200 Week Moving Average (someone, I forget who, thought that was very important). That line is at about 40, and it is gone, gone, gone, except maybe as a strong resistance level.
I see us drifting here, no more huge gapdowns (assuming no more "exogenous shocks"), and no sustainable rally. For the next few months, we will be establishing a new horizontal channel, a channel that has yet to be defined, other than saying it's unlikely to include anything over 40. Current prices are good for establishing a LT holding, and also good for traders. Both can make money, if they stick to their (different) plans.
I, too, will be selling my higher-cost lots on rallies. I have a lot of ST gains for this year, and also a lot of holdings that are underwater, so I'll be doing some tax-loss selling. |
