Mark, it would be great to see some expense projections. One observation: I read that the effort to convert AOL users to their proprietary network, ANS, has been successful to where about 65% are coming in through ANS. This has the effect of converting connection time from a variable to a (more or less) fixed cost.
An estimate from the same source was that the average cost per user per hour was down to $.25 with ANS. (Not a moment too soon, since their new pricing plan yields $0.00 marginal revenues per hour of connection time).
My view: I see big numbers stacking up for users and gross revenues, and I personally like the all-in-one-spot-at-one-price nature of the AOL service, but it's going to be a while before any significant earnings trickle down here. Without a boost from advertising and transactions revenues, there may not be any earnings... competition for "plain ole connectivity" to the web will continue to be fierce, driven by the people with copper, coax, and fiber in the ground already.
Final thought: AOL and MSFT will keep doing what the big boys always do: watch the innovators and then steal their best ideas after the early adopter market shows the way. AOL is on the way with a Pointcast knockoff, a telephony feature, support for Netscape and MSFT Internet Explorer, and an interactive gaming offering that will require a cdrom to play (all the required software at your site). This, with 57.6k access, should result in some interesting game offerings.
Thanks for your input,
Good luck to all,
Brian
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