eBay is in an entirely different league and deserves an entirely different multiple.
eBay seems to be the first to market with a good business model in an emerging medium. Great, they are filling a niche. But just a few cautionary thoughts:
We're still talking about used merchandise, unusual new items, and collectables. It's not as if this the only way to sell these things. There have always been bazaars, swap meets, trade shows, specialty shops, gift shops, etc. Is eBay and its siblings going to make all those things obsolete? Probably not. I'm not going to bid on a particular crystal vase made by a particular notable foreign maker, just for the sake of having one in my house. While if I were to visit that country on vacation, I might try to purchase one as a memento/conversation piece/practical use item.
At the same time, if I for instance am a model railroad fan/hobbyist, am I going to only bid on stuff on the eBays of the world sites? No, because part of the fun of being a hobbyist is making it to the tradeshow that comes nearest to your area.
Anyone can click and click and spend and spend, but where is the satisfaction? Is it that thrilling to sign for the package the UPS guy delivers, so you can put the box in the spare room to open later?
I'm just not convinced of the market potential for eBay to be able to grow as large as some may hope. The truth is, nobody knows. Auctions are always competitive, so that's exciting, and it is a new business idea being pioneered here by eBay.
But then Netscape was also a web pioneer. |
