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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout

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From: SliderOnTheBlack	8/31/2005 11:26:51 AM
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....Interesting shift vis a vis Fed Rate Hikes: Homies rallying on downward GDP revisions - ie: Bond Market is now only pricing in 1 more .25 bp Rate Hike. biz.yahoo.com That only addresses 1/2 of the equation imo. I'm locking in most gains on the Homebuilder Shorts - can't fight the tape. ...the reality of the other 1/2 of the equation (the Bubble vs. a Slowing Economy) will set in sooner, or later. Airlines getting hit hard... the Deathwatch continues. On Gold... the recent smackdown by the Short Commercials should have been expected. The $64 question here is whether the Gold Bulls have any ammo left - considering their already near record high long positions - which unfortunately offers considerable downside potential to POG that virtually no one is addressing if longs begin to liquidate positions...should the Commercial shorts hold firm, or add to positions. It's time to really watch the US Dollar Technicals closely to see to what degree the market is willing to price in the Bond Markets message that there is just one more Fed Rate Hike ahead... Longterm fundamentals for the US Dollar are still very negative. Just a matter of whether the US Dollar is going to be propped up here and if Gold is going to continue to be "smothered" to mute's it's message in this very uneasy Market & Economic Environment. The "technical" range for the HUI still looks to be the 190-227 range... nothing real attractive relative risk:reward...yet. I'm happy to lock in a few gains made on the short-side here while the HUI pulled back... Cash & Patience here...HUI 190 would be enticing if seen and technically, there is no reason to re-deploy on the upside untill GOLD and the HUI break thru resistance...

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