Very, very good analysis and summary. The key is investors' time horizon. If you are a short term trader, this is certainly the area to sell. PSR is pushing 8, Price to Book, 10. However, another SI poster with good TA knowledge commented that, although CKFR has had a good run, it ISN'T overbought! That, to me, is amazing, indicating a little upside from here.
The real story, as everyone has pointed out, is the 1-3 year time horizon (an, IMO, even further down the road, like 5 - 10 years, the Buffet way), where as an investor of CKFR, it seems to be a no brainer! They are certainly a leader in an industry that is only beginning to grow, and will explode when CKFRs application proves to be THE killer application for on-line bill presentation and payment. Remember also, that CKFR has many other business models other than just bill paying on-line. So, the acceptance of on-line commerce over the interent will be $$ in CKFRs wallet (and your's as a stockholder).
The bottom-line, as you pointed out, is the tendency of shareholders to sell TOO EARLY! Considering capital gains taxes, commissions and the stress of trying to time an individual stock, it's probably just as good to sit on this one for a long time. If this "little" company in Norcross Georgia can ink a deal with the nations largest bank (Chase), then I'm willing to invest in the long term viability of CKFR. Also, insider ownershwip is over 40%, and the Chairman, Peter Kight, has not sold any shares in several years. Poised for growth. Remember all those investors (you may be one) who sold INTC, MSFT, DELL, CSCO, SUNW too early, just because the stock had moved up so dramatically in the past. Remember, the past is no guarantee for the future, good or bad. Everyone has to look at the fundamentals of the company today, place a price tag on it, look at where the company is going tomorrow, place a price tag on that, and determine if the return will bew sufficient to justify the risk.
Again, very good analsyis and summation, Robert.
Trading this week, especially with earnings release, should be interesting. In all reality, I expect it to give up a couple points before earnings on Wednesday, and if earnings come in where they were expected, the price could move higher. The important thing I think is holding at the current price levels. Boy, even as I say all of this, I see that 40% gain I've earned over last week and just want to see some of that money in my pocket, especially before earnings. |
