G'day all - Rob, you reflected "I guess that maybe the reason for the recent run-up?"
I don't think so. If you recall, TWMC blew away the earning estimate in the last Q release, and the stock spiked up [due to short covering is my guess] but it retested the low as recent as a week ago. Also, if you recall, Mr Higgins has already mentioned that TWMC would articulate its net strategy in 90 days ago during the CC [as kindly posted here by agent99.]
While I am disappointed that it couldn't hold the gain on Friday, IMHO, I believe someone was [still is?] engaging in some hedging strategy based on TWMC/Camelot merger. Unfortunately, Friday action has not confirmed this hedger[s] has abandoned its strategy. The flip side is that if TWMC comes in with another stellar Q plus any reasonable net strategy, its stock may have the mother of a breakout! Btw, by net strategy, I don't mean TWMC will necessarily need to transform itself to a net stock. Rather, the recent weakness is due in part, if I am right, to the perception of the murky situations surrounding the music/video biz [there are several pieces 1) AMZN model [I truly do not believe it;] 2) MP3 assault; and 3) Record labels themselves forming net partnerships.
In the end, I think TWMC will not only retain its brick-n-mortar biz; additionally, any coherent net strategy will still be the ice on the cake
Just my 2c <g>
best, Bosco |
