Vignette Corporation (VIGN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Vignette Corporation (VIGN)

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To: MGV who wrote (560)	1/18/2001 1:11:37 PM
From: MGV	of 628

10:21am EST 18-Jan-01 Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown (T. Dolan/R. Zeller) VIGN VIGN: 4Q Slightly Better Than Expected on Lower Quality -- Guidan-Mkt. Perform Dolan, Timothy J. CFA Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown Inc. VIGNETTE CORPORATION (VIGN) "MKT. PERFORM" 4Q Slightly Better Than Expected on Lower Quality -- Guidance and Workforce Reduced -- Downgraded to "Market Perform" Earlier This Morning ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: 01/17/2001 EPS: 2000A 2001E 2002E Price: 12.5 1Q 0.00 (0.01) NE 52-Wk Range: 101 - 10 2Q 0.01 0.02 NE Ann Dividend:0.0 3Q (0.01) 0.03 NE Ann Div Yld: 0.00% 4Q 0.00 0.05 NE Mkt Cap (mm):2,896 FY(Dec.) 0.00A 0.09 0.20 3-Yr Growth: 45% FY P/EPS NM NM 62.5X CY EPS 0.00 0.09 0.20 Est. Changed Yes CY P/EPS NM NM 62.5X We have recently heard many positive things about Vignette's competitiveness in the field and the size of the deals it has in its sales pipeline. We still believe that Vignette has the capability to be one of the winners in the e-business applications markets. However, we believe the group may be out of favor over the near term, and out of that group Vignette will likely be the most out of favor as a result of its cautious outlook. Management attributed the difficulty it experienced down the stretch of 4Q and the reason for its lowered guidance to the macroeconomic concerns of customers. We believe the macro outlook may have been the cause for some of Vignette's cautiousness, but we also believe that Vignette may be struggling as it grows up to be a very large company that must become dependent on big deals to be successful. In terms of quantifying the difficulties of closing business, management stated that it had roughly $50 million in bookings that did not close for the quarter. This dollar figure was comprised of roughly 90 deals. In discerning whether there was a competitive issue or a macro/internal issue, Vignette stated that in 87 of the 90 deals it had already won all competitive evaluations and contracts were in negotiation phases. It should be noted that the company did not forecast that all of the $50 million or 90 deals would come in for the quarter, however, management did say that much more business slipped than it had anticipated.

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