Q for thread: Anyone familiar w/Florida and specifically South Florida real estate?
Although I concur w/general thread sentiment that we still have a real estate (residential) bubble to pop in the U.S., some areas are going to hold up (obviously?) better than others (in fact, you can well argue that there are many areas in U.S. and especially Canada in which there is NO bubble).
In Florida, specifically South Florida, although there has been great appreciation, I believe the area will hold up well.
(1) Not a lot of industry or tech here vs. service/tourist based economy
(2) Many/A good amount of corporate jobs involve Latin America- small support offices that stay open if there is $10 million or $50 million in biz...so there won't be enormous layoffs here....more one-sies and two-sies..
(3) Massive influx of Latins (Argentinians, Venezuelans, Colombian) fleeing economic/other troubles, moving to Miami/Ft. Lauderdale and suburbs...across all economic lines, but including many wealthy.....Steady stream of immigration from Dom. Republic, Haiti and islands. This is unlikely to end anytime soon.
(4) Euro appreciation makes real estate more attractive to Europeans...many Euro wealthy buy 2nd homes, appartments
(5) Continued north-south movement of U.S. population....immigration of Canadians/Americans to Florida. Quebecois represent the largest group of "foreignors" visiting SoFlorida every year- more than French, Brazilian, Germans or British. Some stay or buy 2nd place.
(6) Limited expansion possible for building in much of South Florida (Everglades, etc.)
(7) Retiree demographic....ironically, there was a mini-boom in the past year, with many retirees or close cashing in their ports (sick of market) and buying that dream house in Florida. Real estate seen as a "safer" bet-g
** Let me add that Miami is building a $250m downtown performing arts/ballet (scheduled for 2004) that industry insiders say will rival Kennedy Center and the Met (in design). Regardless, it will improve city greatly, and is the cornerstone of a downtown revival. Possible downtown baseball stadium by 2005.
What is stunning and scary is the absolute uber-confidence of real estate pros down here......the catch phrase is, "real estate in Florida NEVER goes down".....well, in a way, "they" are right...prices have increased every year since 1982....but the conceit is scary and reminds me of the tech bubble top..
I can tell you that it appears that high-end real estate is turning over slower (lot more for sale signs up everywhere- and they stay up), but prices are holding pretty well (still increasing). A couple of the agents/owners I know say business is continuing great, although they are hardly objective observers...
Thoughts from anyone? Prediction: SoFlo will feel the hit, but it will be relatively mild, and nothing like Calif., New York, or Boston....relatively speaking, SoFlo still undervalued in comparison (although some of the higher-end stuff is ridiculous), so less air in the prices here. |
