Robert,
I had 500 shares pre spilt (last year) at 97/48.5 split adjusted, which I sold 2 months ago at 75 so I could pay off a house and sell it quickly. Of course Mr. CounterIndicator (me) watched Intel run to 101 before I could get back in.
As to where Intel will be in five years, probably higher, hopefully much higher. For the past few years they've been doubling about every 2 years. Of course it's been faster lately but let's call that "Not Normal". I imagine we'll see two splits in the next five years, but more importantly you should see a rise in your 10K investment to about 40K.
Intel is a cash machine, of course keep an eye on competing technologies and web enabled TV's. These devices may stop the wholesale adoption of PC's into the home, of course business will still need PC's. If the level of home PC owners platues at 40% and the rest use webTV's that's still OK. Remember Europe only has about 20% PC home ownership, and Asia is 10%-5%. So the overseas market is still just beginning and has a lot of growth potential.
I live in South Korea and can tell you most folks here still have 286's and not many people even have a PC. Heck, most stores don't even have electronic cash registers, they use a drawer with what looks like a toy combination lock. This is a cash and carry society, very few credit cards and no checkbooks that I've seen.
My experiences here in Korea tell me China can't be any better. So if you go with the old Coca Cola analogy, that Americans drink 330 cokes a years and the average Chinese drinks 3. I think you can guess the growth potential. By the way it's no longer true they don't have PC's because they don't have the cash, there are many many well to do Koreans, and like most Asian countries they place a high degree of importance on education. So a PC has become a required tool to compete for the limited higher education slots. These graduating students have been exposed to computers, and will carry that experience into the job market.
So even if the US market platues, I think the worldwide market will remain quite strong for some time. Now if Microsoft can just get them to stop stealing software, it should be the dynamic duo!
Could you imagine 30% chinese home ownership of PC's, it's mind numbing numbers. |
