Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 262.92

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Dec 29 3:59 PM EST

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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (56698)	11/30/2001 3:44:37 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Jacob, There are cycles and there are cycles. A typical cycle results in overcapacity and undercapacity while semi sales continue their secular trend. Semi unit shipments increase throughout the cycle, but prices and revenue fluctuate with the capacity situation. Semi-equip revenues fluctuate even more dramatically with the capacity situation. A typical cycle may be affected by a recession. It also may be affected by huge bubble burst which results in a worldwide recession, the current situation. The trough of this "cycle" will last at least a year, from the middle of 2001 to the middle of 2002 or further out. The recovery will be very slow and gradual because semi unit sales have a long way to go to get back to bubble levels for which capacity ostensibly was in place. I think you will see $8B, $10B, $12B, $16B, $20B from 03/04-07/08.

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