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Technology Stocks : Microsoft - When to short
MSFT 518.88+0.2%9:30 AM EST
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To: jim shiau who wrote (56)1/5/1998 11:45:00 AM
From: Mike McFarland  Read Replies (2) of 96
 
I think the behavior of Microsofts stock price in
the last few weeks of 1997 shows that it is not
immune from sharp downdrafts. So many of the market
watchers are worried about a slowdown in earnings
growth--and if there is a stock out there that
trades based on future earnings it is MSFT.

Microsoft is in a very competitive industry, W95
has already saturated...the number of homes with
PC's is becoming saturated...there are still
choices besides Office which are cheaper and
perhaps better, and corporations need not go to
NT. Unix is surprisingly strong, and I would not
minimize the risk of a unix and Java future
running on sparc (and Merced in a few years).

Also, the Justice department is going to nail
Microsoft--expect W98 even later when they
start tearing it up.

News from Netscape today only reaffirms my
conviction that MSFT abuses its position, and
Judges and Lawyers read the news too.

Microsoft had a terrific rocketship ride to
the stars. Remember...the light that burns
twice as bright burns half as long.

Needless to say, I bought five puts today,
first we heard from Sybase, then Netscape,
maybe we will even hear an excuse from
Microsoft now--they certainly have plenty
to use, and all they would have to do is
say that earnings reported next week will
be a dime under...and pow, this ship is
going down.

Or I could be wrong! God knows it happens!
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