runes:
Welcome to the thread. If you've followed the thread for a couple of years, you know there are a wide variety of investment styles and outlooks represented here. It will be good to have another industry voice on the thread.
My take is, the current consensus of investors is: there will be an upturn, in the general economy, and in semi-equip bookings, about mid-2002. Bad news, till then, is in the stocks. Bad news continuing after that, is not. Over the last few weeks, I've become marginally more optimistic, that we've seen the bottom in the stocks for this downcycle. This optimism is dependant on a general economic recovery in mid-2002, and the war going well. Both of those events seem likely, but by no means certain.
It was encouraging, that AMAT bounced in late December, at around 40, indicating that 40 is a floor again, as it was for most of 2001. I considered adding then, but held off. With a bit more certainty now, I'm a bit more likely to add on the next dip to 40. I expect we won't sustain any move over 50, till semi-equip bookings begin a sustained uptrend off the 600M/month trough levels. That will happen, at the earliest by June 2002, and at the latest by January 2003, IMO. |
