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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts
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To: ajtj99 who wrote (58853)5/4/2022 2:28:25 PM
From: Jacob Snyder2 Recommendations

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ajtj99
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< We could be in a recession right now>

I doubt that. Nobody is predicting 2Q22 GDP will be negative. And the 1Q22 report is preliminary; final numbers are often very different.

There is always a lag, from credit tightening and yield curve inversion, to the start of a recession. 12-18 months typically.

Hard to see a recession beginning with the labor market extremely tight. We need to see a softening of wage gains, job openings.

My current guess: 60% odds of recession in 2023, 10% odds in 2022.

Labor force participation rate:

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