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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 282.43-3.3%2:03 PM EST
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To: michael97123 who wrote (59602)1/29/2002 11:57:46 AM
From: runes   of 70976
 
A different take - look at driving forces.

Right now the current high speed options - DSL and cable are adequately meeting the needs of the general public. In fact these technologies are still on a strong growth curve.

IMO - you won't see anyone pushing into the next gen technologies until there is a need which will support the higher costs which are needed to finance the investment. Here, I believe John is right on the mark - the driver will be digital video.

But, while digital video is starting to gain momentum, it will still take some time before the general public starts demanding video-at-home services. On top of which there is an active opposition - the MPAA (Motion Picture Assoc of Amer) who has already seen RIA (Recording Industry of Amer) win the battle but lose the war over MP3. You can see their presence in the Digital Millenium Copyright Act, and vigorous prosecution of those who dare to hack DVD encryption.

So, no - I don't expect to see a rush to higher bandwidths in a couple years. If one follows the MP3 migration to the web, we are probably looking to the last half of the decade before the demand materializes. If MPAA is successful, even longer (Like RIA, they have an entire distribution system to protect).

PS - add another growth element to digital video. Just got myself roped into editing and burning my niece's wedding video - to be shot with a digi-cam and burned onto CD (maybe DVD).
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