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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.
AAPL 247.97-0.1%3:59 PM EST
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From: Don Green12/26/2006 1:45:39 PM
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Tough Times Ahead for Big-Cap Tech

So let's take a look at some individual names in big-cap tech.

Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): Despite the holiday sales hype surrounding iPods and iMacs, this stock can't climb to my quarterly risky level at $93.98. It declined 40% in the first seven months of 2006, and a similar decline looks likely over the next three years.

Cisco (CSCO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This stock is trying to return to its January 2004 high of $29.39. If it does, it will be on pure technical momentum. Even with this strength, Cisco's downside risk is 30% over the next three years.

Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): It tested my quarterly risky level at the end of November, and it should have a tough time reaching its fair value at $31.60. A laggard in 2006, Dell's downside is 15% over the next three years.

Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): This stock achieved its fair value when it tested $513 on Nov. 22. My model shows risk of a 30% decline over the next three years.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating): A month ago, the stock tested $40.85 and has been moving sideways to down since then. The downside is 25% over the next three years.

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