There are some interesting dynamics going on right now.
Max Pain is now at QQQ 25. That is not a certainty, especially this far out. Furthermore, it isn't too far from 24. 23 seems remote, but not out of the question for this month.
Assuming 24 comes back into play, we'd have to get back up to this level by expiration. That's why many of us are looking for a run up to 1328 into expiration after an initial drop to 1250-1264.
The schedule some of us are expecting may be a bit premature. If we are to ramp to 1328 by Sept. 18-20, we only need 2-3 days at the most, or 5-days to whipsaw our way up. That would put us ideally at 1250 COMP by Sept. 10-11.
Either we have to play around at the current levels for a few more days next week, or we drop right away to 1250, bounce to 1299, and re-test the 1250 level into Sept. 10.
Anyway, I just wanted to put this out as Max Pain kind of surprised me by moving up to 25 QQQ.
SPX Max Pain is 935, but could just as easily be 905. The average price of the Dow futures for Sept. is 8400-8500 according to Paul Shread. There is also a 300-point shortfall from June carried forward, meaning they will try to make it to 8700 Dow for futures expiration, but would settle for 8400-8500 if they had to. |
