Famously bearish analyst more bullish on economy
Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach feels better but warns oil, protectionism are still a threat to global growth.
May 1, 2006: 1:31 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) - Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach said in a report released Monday that he feels better about the global economy's outlook "for the first time in ages."
While hesitant to "give an unbalanced world the green light," Roach credited maneuvers by central banks, globalization proponents and orderly currency adjustments for his optimism.
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"I must confess that I am now feeling better about the prognosis for the world economy for the first time in ages," said Roach in his most recent report.
The Morgan Stanley economist said his confidence has been bolstered by efforts by the world's central banks, including those in China and Japan, who are working towards a goal of "normalization," or attempting to put rates at a neutral setting.
That approach, said Roach, has reduced the likelihood that the global economy would be disrupted by the boom-bust cycles of the past.
Roach said he was also optimistic about the Group of Seven and the International Monetary Fund, both of which are working to correct global economic imbalances.
Roach also praised currency adjustments, which have lowered the possibility of a steep decline in the U.S. dollar, and efforts by Asian economies such as China to move from an export to a consumer-growth approach.
At the same time, Roach warned that the price of oil and certain geopolitical risks such as Iran still pose a risk for the world economy. The Morgan Stanley economist said protectionism is also a threat, and that Washington's criticism of China is only promoting resistance to globalization. |
