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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company

QCOM 176.31

+1.9%

Jan 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Eric L who wrote (6179)	2/3/2000 1:22:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) of 13582

EriQ: Hey what a name ! The practical difficulty in making accurate projections right now is that data is just about to enter its tornado. The only historical basis for projections is voice with a slight data component. We know the future is going to be heavily data with some voice. How is it possible to quantify that? Suggest no one has - yet. So projections now are vastly understated - particularly in regard to CDMA and future CDMA 2.5 and 3rd gen years. So there is the ambiguity re the 3rd gen compounded by no meaningful historical base for data - not ever CDMA One - let alone 1XRTT or HDR or 3XRTT. In other words a projection based on voice data handles the voice tornado for the Q but not the upcoming data tornado. Therefore the predictions only show an absolute minimum (voice with a small data element) rather than what will actually happen - data with a relatively small voice element. Suggest we relax re projections - they miss the primary driver - data. (And that element is missing for both CDMA and GSM upgrades) Best. Chaz

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