Another pick and another market call:
MCHP looks to be nearing a bottom. I think it can bounce at 19.5 and rise for 3 weeks after. Of all the semis. I like this best right now.
BTW, My search for the nearterm bottom ends when the SOX hits 280.
So my targets across the board:
DJIA: 6950
COMP: 1125
SOX: 280
VXN: 79
VIX: 58
Probable day for bottom: Wednesday, 7/31 or Thursday 8/1, but any day from Tuesday through Monday, 6/5 is close enough.
Pay close attention to what's being bought at the close of the bottom two days to get a picture of what stocks can rally best in coming weeks.
We may get another 5-7 days of churn as these bottoms retest some, but it appears these can hold. The best rally window I can foresee is 8/16-9/9, though it could begin and end 1 week earlier.
I still can't see the rally that follows pulling NASDAQ above 1470 though, so I'll call that as this quarter's high. 1500, 1575 and 1650 would be the next targets if we exceed that. But we'll not reach 1675 this year or next, period.
And assuming 1500-990 as NASDAQ's range from now till the October bottom would be wise.
As for the Dow, sorry, but I can't see any rally taking it above 9000 again. In fact, 8800 looks impossible. I'm setting 8800 to 5800 as my targets for the quarter.
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Why should this supersede others I've made? Fairly simple...
I didn't buy the gold fever excessive projections nor its worst conspiratorial overtones. I expected to see it manipulated some, to permit JPM a better buy point. Nowhere in my imagination did I perceive it could be rocked like this past week. It speaks volumes about the whole shebang.
It suggests, since early June, that several biggies were accumulating on dips. Then they dumped at key points last week, triggering waves of selling that drove its price down.
To me, it makes clear that the real panic was by insiders trying to shore up JPM before it collapsed our financial system. Only by rebuying gold on the cheap could JPM survive. I think it'll trade between 28 and 16.50 between now and October. And it may go to 18 (+ or - 50 cents) before it bounces.
Getting the gold price down was essential. But now comes more than your normal short squeeze for gold. It can only drop 1-2 more days before the buying kicks in. Defying standard TA, I think it can drop another 10-30% yet. (if you bought too early, either set tight stops and switch to another golddigger when it bottoms, or ride it out. My outrageous buy price for HL is $1.75-1.80, but I consider it a bargain at $2.10... by October I see it at 7 to $8.75) This would put gold, the metal, around $395 to $490/oz.
If they could manipulate it so easily this time, why can't they again? Simple. Demand. Institutional buyers won't be left out this time. They'll buy and hold and won't get shook out, now that they can see both its great prices now, plus the earnings reports rolling in in the next two weeks.
Those funds plus JPM & C buying. That's a squeezapalooza!
As for the indexes, think it through. There's no killer app in tech right now. Two years out, there will be. Can't refinance the mortgages again; we borrowed from next year's home sales and auto sales already. Consumer confidence indexes are last month's news; which consumer do you know that's confident TODAY about job security or the market or the banks or whatever? So who's buying, and what?
Anyone see more than a COLA on their paycheck lately? Tech wages are being hammered and it's no better elsewhere.
Governments at all levels are scrambling to cover lost tax revenues. Think more taxes and fees will stimulate buying or investment?
And now they'd like another war... oh yeah, that'll stimulate things... don't be deceived into thinking Iraq is a sitting duck like before, either. With Iran added to the mix, any war will not be a cakewalk like the last few.
How's YOUR consuming confidence? Which bank do YOU trust today? I know folks who never played the mkt who are worried right now.
Gold & silver seem so safe right now... kinda cuddly even. Whether it rallies immediately or dips more in the next two days, it's a solid buy in my book.
JPM made the egregious mistakes, as well as many a CEO, auditor, analyst, etc. Now's the time to get yours, at their expense for a change.
I'm just a little guy with big dreams and my view could be wrong wrong wrong. Remember that if you choose to buy any golddigger. I'm not saying there'll be huge pops immediately. I'm saying it'll get accumulated, steadily. The biggest pops will be in the final month, not this first one.
Unless we've hit the final bottom of the long bear market, I think the heavy metals will be the key to market success for the next 12 weeks. I think it may triple or more from here, if you choose the right diggers.
I only regret that my cash base is too small to make a huge difference in my life even if I nailed this perfectly. Anyone wanna loan me $100K for 3 mos? <GG>
Good luck with yours. |
