<I take it you are a real believer in CDMA with the Q - hehe - what do you think would come along to replace the company or the technology within the next year or 2 - or are you totally convinced it is not possible?>
Several years ago, I found an OFDM project in Auckland University. I had never heard of it. We asked Andrew Viterbi about OFDM at a QCOM annual general meeting. HE mumbled something about QCOM having a few patents, but seemed to avoid the question. Then, a year or two later, he left to join Flarion, an OFDM proponent.
OFDM is the major threat as far as I can see. WiFi, WiMax, pulsed monocycles, Bluetooth, and other ideas are synergistic, complementary or not much threat in wide area networks, which are QCOM's domain.
But OFDM has got a harder row to hoe than CDMA had against analogue, TDMA and GSM, because the relative efficiencies aren't as great, and CDMA has got at least as much head start against OFDM as GSM had against CDMA. CDMA is STILL only at about 20% market share.
I think everyone on Earth will want CDMA in 3G mode, just as everyone wants eyes and ears [or at least one of the two]. But we need some price wars, more technology development and a lot more build-out.
Mqurice |
